Brent settles at $109.86, highest since May, as Gulf attacks lift oil
WTI rose 10.4% to $101.41 in the week of Oct. 12-16, while the IEA and OPEC now differ by 2.8 million barrels a day on 2026 demand.
- Brent settled at $109.86 a barrel on Oct. 16, up 4.9% on the week and the highest close since May 19.
- The IEA forecasts 2026 oil demand down 2.6 million barrels a day, while OPEC forecasts growth of 0.2 million.
- The next EIA weekly U.S. inventory report is due Oct. 21, after an 8.6 million barrel crude draw.
Brent crude settled at $109.86 a barrel on Oct. 16, up 4.9% in the week of Oct. 12-16, as attacks near the Strait of Hormuz outweighed an IEA release of more than 20 million barrels of fuel, FinanceFeeds reported.
Gulf attacks lift Brent to $109.86 and WTI to $101.41
Brent's December contract rose 3.7% on Oct. 16 alone, from $105.92 to $109.86, according to EnergyNow's price report. The weekly gain of 4.9% is our calculation from the Oct. 9 close of $104.72.
WTI's November contract settled at $101.41, up 10.4% from $91.85 on Oct. 9 (our calculation). That narrowed the Brent-WTI gap to $8.45 from $12.87 (our calculation).
A Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, a Red Sea export port, and no damage was reported, according to the same EnergyNow report.
Energy Aspects, a research consultancy, said both benchmarks reversed earlier losses as escalation fears returned amid rumors of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, according to a Reuters-based report.
Hormuz flows run 32% below baseline and Russian diesel is in doubt
About 11.62 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz in the week to Oct. 13, against a baseline of 17.15 million, according to Kpler data cited by FinanceFeeds. That is 32% below baseline (our calculation). Not independently verified.
Kpler analysts said on Oct. 15 that intensified Iranian attacks sharply reduced Gulf crude flows and that recovery would stay uneven without a comprehensive political agreement, per EnergyNow.
A Ukrainian drone strike halted a primary crude distillation unit at Russia's Ryazan refinery on Oct. 15, according to two industry sources cited in the same Reuters-based report.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, questioned how much diesel Russia can actually deliver, and said conflict in the Middle East keeps coming back.
The IEA sees demand down 2.6 million barrels a day while OPEC sees growth
The IEA said on Oct. 14 that global oil demand falls 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, to 102.4 million, with diesel accounting for 25% of the drop, in its October oil market report.
Supply falls faster. The IEA expects 100.7 million barrels a day in 2026, down 5.8 million, and global stocks stand 509 million barrels below end-February levels.
OPEC's monthly report of Oct. 13 puts 2026 demand growth at 0.2 million barrels a day, down from 0.4 million, according to TASS. The gap with the IEA is 2.8 million barrels a day (our calculation).
OPEC raised its 2027 growth forecast to 2.6 million barrels a day, The Star reported. The IEA sees 2.0 million.
North Sea Dated traded around $134 a barrel when the IEA wrote its report, about $27 above Brent futures at around $107 (our calculation).
Emergency stocks grow while U.S. crude inventories fall 8.6 million barrels
The EIA's weekly tables show U.S. commercial crude stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, at 415.6 million barrels on Oct. 9. Stocks fell 8.6 million barrels in that week, FinanceFeeds reported.
IEA members agreed on Oct. 15 to release more than 20 million barrels of fuel. The U.S. Department of Energy sought bids to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to FinanceFeeds.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told member governments on Oct. 7 that the agency "stands ready to release a larger portion of these reserves", APA reported.
About 325 million of the 400 million barrels announced in March had reached the market by then, APA reported.
OPEC+ held November targets steady on Oct. 4, with Saudi Arabia at 10.5 million barrels a day and Russia at 9.9 million, according to Enerdata.
The week in numbers
| Benchmark | Level | Week change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent, December contract | $109.86 | +4.9% our calculation | EnergyNow price report |
| WTI, November contract | $101.41 | +10.4% our calculation | EnergyNow price report |
| Brent-WTI gap | $8.45 | from $12.87 our calculation | EnergyNow price report |
| U.S. crude stocks, excluding reserve | 415.6 million barrels | -8.6 million barrels | EIA weekly tables |
| IEA 2026 demand change | -2.6 million barrels a day | OPEC: +0.2 million | IEA October report |
As of the Oct. 16 settlements. Week change is our calculation from the closes on Oct. 9 and Oct. 16. Stocks are for the week to Oct. 9.
The EIA report on Oct. 21 and the Fed on Oct. 27-28 are the dated checks
- Oct. 21: the EIA weekly petroleum status report shows whether the 8.6 million barrel crude draw repeats, per FinanceFeeds.
- Oct. 27-28: the Federal Reserve meets, an event FinanceFeeds lists just beyond the week ahead.
- Ongoing: take-up of the 17 million barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange offer and Kpler's weekly Hormuz flow data.
How we reported this: Prices come from EnergyNow and FinanceFeeds; weekly changes are our calculation (109.86 / 104.72 - 1 and 101.41 / 91.85 - 1). IEA and EIA figures come from their own pages. Uptake of the 17 million barrel exchange is unknown.