IMF lifts 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and sees inflation at 4.7%
The Fund's October outlook keeps 2027 growth at 3.4% and says price-suppressing measures can cost 3 to 22 times more fiscal resources than targeted transfers.
- The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with headline inflation rising to 4.7% in 2026.
- The World Bank forecast 2.5% for 2026 in June on market exchange-rate weights and 2.9% on purchasing power parity weights.
- The IMF lists escalating conflicts, a reassessment of AI expectations, renewed trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities as its downside risks.
Global growth forecast for 2026, %, by issue. IMF figures from its April, July and October outlooks; World Bank figure from its June 11 report, which uses market exchange rates.
The International Monetary Fund published its World Economic Outlook on Oct. 13, 2026. It projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, and global headline inflation of 4.7% in 2026.
The 2026 forecast is back at its April level after a July dip
The IMF projected global growth of 3.1% for 2026 in its April outlook, then cut it to 3.0% in its July update.
The October figure is 3.1%, which is 0.1 percentage point above July (our calculation: 3.1 - 3.0). CGTN reported the same upgrade on Oct. 13.
The 2027 forecast is 3.4%, unchanged from July and 0.2 percentage points above the April figure of 3.2% (our calculation: 3.4 - 3.2).
Inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1%
The IMF projects global headline inflation of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. The October page gives no earlier numeric forecast, so we do not compute a revision.
The April issue said inflation would rise modestly in 2026. The July update said global disinflation had stalled. Neither gave a global figure on the pages we opened.
The IMF said price-suppressing measures can require 3 to 22 times more fiscal resources than targeted, temporary transfers. It said energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain face the most difficult outlook.
The World Bank's 2.5% for 2026 sits on a different weighting basis
The World Bank forecast global growth of 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, and 2.8% in 2027, in its Global Economic Prospects of June 11, 2026.
Its chapter highlights say headline rates use market exchange rates. On purchasing power parity weights, the bank puts world growth at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
The two houses publish on different bases and in different months, so the comparison is indicative, not like for like.
The World Bank's baseline assumes Brent crude at $94.0 per barrel in 2026 and $76.0 in 2027. A scenario with Brent averaging $115 in 2026 would leave global growth 0.4 percentage points below baseline.
Report in numbers
| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMF global growth forecast | 3.1% | 2026, issued Oct. 13 | IMF |
| IMF global growth forecast | 3.4% | 2027, issued Oct. 13 | IMF |
| IMF global headline inflation | 4.7% | 2026, issued Oct. 13 | IMF |
| IMF global headline inflation | 4.1% | 2027, issued Oct. 13 | IMF |
| IMF growth forecast, July | 3.0% | 2026, issued July 8 | IMF |
| IMF growth revision vs. July | +0.1 points | 2026, our calculation | Our calculation |
| World Bank growth forecast | 2.5% | 2026, issued June 11 | World Bank |
Growth and inflation are the IMF's projections for the years shown; the revision is our calculation from the October and July figures.
The October page leaves country detail and earlier inflation figures out
The October summary page gives no figures for the United States, the euro area, China or India, and no earlier numeric inflation forecasts. The IMF said its projections use data available through Oct. 1, 2026.
How we reported this: we opened the IMF October, July and April pages, the World Bank release and highlights, and CGTN. The 0.1 and 0.2 point revisions are our calculation (3.1 - 3.0; 3.4 - 3.2). We did not open IMF tables.
Source: www.imf.org