Brent settles at $109.55 as WTI gains 10.6% in a week on Hormuz risk

Brent crude settled at $109.55 a barrel on Oct. 19, up 2.7% from Oct. 12, while WTI gained 10.6% to $103.66 in the week of Oct. 13-19, as Gulf shipping attacks and a U.S. sanctions waiver pulled in opposite directions.

WTI jumps 10.6% and narrows its gap to Brent to $5.89

Brent's December contract settled at $109.55 on Oct. 19, down 31 cents on the day, according to The Nation. The Oct. 12 settlement was $106.65, The Nation reported.

That makes the weekly gain 2.7%, our calculation: 109.55 / 106.65 - 1. Brent's Oct. 13 settlement of $105.69, down 0.9%, is consistent with that base, according to Energies Media.

WTI's November contract settled at $103.66 on Oct. 19, up $2.25 and its highest since Sept. 15, The Nation reported. Against $93.74 on Oct. 12, the gain is 10.6%, our calculation: 103.66 / 93.74 - 1.

The Brent-WTI gap narrowed to $5.89 from $12.91, our calculation. Trading was thin ahead of the Oct. 20 expiry of the WTI front-month contract, The Nation said.

Gulf crude flows fall to 8.5 million barrels a day as ship attacks continue

Gulf crude flows averaged about 8.5 million barrels a day over seven days, down from more than 20 million the week before, according to Kpler data cited in Cornerstone Futures' summary.

Kpler counted at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels. Iran's Guards Corps said a tanker hit a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 18, The Nation reported.

Initial weekly flow figures are often revised higher. Goldman Sachs estimated revisions of about 4 million barrels a day in an Oct. 11 note, Cornerstone Futures said.

Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military sites did not stop Brent's decline, and Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claims, The Nation reported.

Brent had settled at $109.86 on Oct. 16, its highest since May 19, according to the Sunday Guardian's Reuters-based report.

A U.S. waiver on Russian energy sanctions adds up to 7.6 million barrels a month

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Oct. 16 waiving some Russia-related sanctions and tariffs, according to the Sunday Guardian. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact.

The order follows a diesel deal under which Russian exports would rise from about 2.3 million barrels in October to about 7.6 million barrels a month, according to Mansfield Energy.

Suvro Sarkar of DBS Bank expects Brent to trade between $100 and $110 until the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to Reuters as cited by the Sunday Guardian. Brent's Oct. 19 settlement of $109.55 sits inside that range.

U.S. crude stocks fall 8.6 million barrels as Washington offers 17 million from reserves

Commercial crude stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 8.6 million barrels to 415.577 million in the week to Oct. 9, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data summarized by Rigzone.

The reserve held at 283.0 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 3.5 million barrels and distillate stocks fell 2.5 million to 102.6 million, Rigzone reported.

The Department of Energy is offering an extra 17 million barrels from the reserve through January, and the U.S. oil rig count fell by three to 459 in the week to Oct. 16, Mansfield Energy said.

The International Energy Agency's October report puts 2026 demand down 2.6 million barrels a day at 102.4 million, with supply at 100.7 million, OilMonster reported. Observed inventories were 509 million barrels below end-February levels.

The week in numbers

As of the Oct. 19 settlements. Price changes are our calculation from the Oct. 12 and Oct. 19 settlements. Stocks are for the week to Oct. 9 and the rig count for the week to Oct. 16.

The EIA report on Oct. 21 and the Nov. 3 midterms are the next dated checks

• Oct. 20: the WTI November contract expires, so the front month rolls to December, The Nation said.
• Oct. 21: the EIA weekly petroleum status report, on the standard Wednesday schedule of the EIA release calendar, shows whether the 8.6 million barrel draw repeats.
• Ongoing: Kpler's weekly Hormuz flow data and take-up of the 17 million barrel reserve offer, per FinanceFeeds.
• Nov. 3: U.S. midterm elections, the horizon DBS uses for its $100 to $110 Brent range.

How we reported this: Prices come from The Nation's settlement reports; weekly changes are our calculation (109.55 / 106.65 - 1 and 103.66 / 93.74 - 1). Kpler data reach us through outlets, not Kpler's page.