Europe's TTF gas gains 13.0% to €96.09 as Henry Hub falls 10.2%
European gas reached its highest level since December 2022 on Gulf LNG losses, while U.S. futures sank on mild weather and a 77 Bcf storage build.
- Dutch TTF gas gained 13.0% to €96.09 per megawatt-hour in the week of Oct. 21-27, while Henry Hub fell 10.2% to $2.662.
- EU storage was 74.6% full on Oct. 24, against the European Commission's 90% target for filling between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1.
- The U.S. storage report is due Oct. 29, and analysts expect a 68 Bcf injection, according to Pipeline & Gas Journal.
Europe's Dutch TTF gas benchmark closed at €96.09 per megawatt-hour on Oct. 26, up 13.0% from Oct. 20, according to Investing.com closing data. Henry Hub futures fell 10.2% to $2.662 per mmBtu in the week of Oct. 21-27.
Gulf LNG losses push European gas to its highest since 2022
The TTF front-month contract closed at €85.06 on Oct. 20 and €96.09 on Oct. 26. The 13.0% gain is our calculation from those two closes. Trading Economics put the Oct. 27 level at €95.74.
TTF touched €97.64 on Oct. 26, the highest since December 2022, according to Euronews. Winter-month futures traded near €95 per megawatt-hour, the same report said.
Middle Eastern LNG deliveries to Europe were down nearly 80% from a year earlier after disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, Investing.com reported on Oct. 27.
Goldman Sachs analysts linked the higher risk premium to Middle East supply uncertainty, Investing.com reported. Norway's Gassco widened an unplanned outage at the Oseberg field to 12.7 million cubic meters per day from 7.7 million, the same report said.
Asian prices moved with Europe. The Japan-Korea Marker was near $32 per mmBtu and TTF near $31 on Oct. 27, according to Pipeline & Gas Journal.
The International Energy Agency's Gas Market Report for Q3-2026 projected that Qatar and the UAE would lose about 54 bcm of LNG supply in 2026, a 45% drop from 2025, per the IEA executive summary.
Henry Hub drops 10.2% as mild weather and a 77 Bcf build weigh
November Henry Hub futures settled at $2.963 per mmBtu on Oct. 20, according to Sprague Energy. They rose 2% to $2.662 on Oct. 27, Reuters said. That is a weekly decline of 10.2%, our calculation.
Next-day spot gas in Louisiana fell to $2.52, the lowest since November 2024, according to Reuters via Business Recorder. Meteorologists expect mostly milder-than-normal weather through Nov. 11, which limits heating demand.
U.S. prices reacted little to the global rally because the country produces all the gas it consumes, Pipeline & Gas Journal said.
Calendar 2027 futures fell to a 56-month low of $3.12, the Oct. 22 report from Pipeline & Gas Journal said.
The Energy Information Administration reported a 77 Bcf injection for the week ended Oct. 16, below the 79 Bcf analysts expected, Pipeline & Gas Journal reported on Oct. 22. Working gas totaled 3,644 Bcf, 1.0% above the five-year average.
That report resolved the first checkpoint in our previous review, published Oct. 21.
The warmth flagged as the second checkpoint also held. The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, favored above-normal temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. for Nov. 1-5, FXEmpire reported.
U.S. LNG plants run near capacity while EU storage trails
Feedgas to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants averaged 18.3 Bcf/d in October, up from 17.9 Bcf/d in September, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The plants run near capacity, so exports cannot rise until new units start.
LSEG expects Lower 48 demand, including exports, to rise from 105.7 Bcf/d to 110.7 Bcf/d, Reuters reported. Lower 48 output averaged 112.0 Bcf/d in October, below the 113.3 Bcf/d highs of August and September.
EU storage was 74.6% full on Oct. 24, according to Bruegel analysis cited by Euronews. The Oct. 21 edition had flagged the Nov. 1 EU checkpoint for filling.
The European Commission now sets a 90% target to be met between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1, so the Nov. 1 date no longer marks a deadline.
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead Europe energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told Euronews on Oct. 27: "Demand reduction remains the biggest lever within Europe's control."
Euronews reported that EU gas demand fell 17.7% between 2021 and 2025. The EU will ban Russian LNG completely from January 2027, the same report said.
The week in numbers
| Benchmark | Latest | Prior | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF front-month, €/MWh | €96.09 (Oct. 26) | €85.06 (Oct. 20) | Investing.com |
| Henry Hub November futures, $/mmBtu | $2.662 (Oct. 27) | $2.963 (Oct. 20) | Business Recorder |
| U.S. working gas in storage, Bcf | 3,644 (Oct. 16) | 3,567 (Oct. 9) | American Gas Association and Pipeline & Gas Journal |
| U.S. LNG feedgas, Bcf/d | 18.3 (October to date) | 17.9 (September) | Pipeline & Gas Journal |
As of Oct. 27. Weekly changes are our calculation from the closes on Oct. 20 and Oct. 26 for TTF and Oct. 20 and Oct. 27 for Henry Hub.
Storage data, weather outlooks and a Dec. 1 deadline set the next checkpoints
- Oct. 29: The EIA reports storage for the week ended Oct. 23. Analysts expect a 68 Bcf injection to 3,712 Bcf, 0.7% above the five-year average, according to Pipeline & Gas Journal.
- Oct. 31: Venture Global's target for commercial operations at Plaquemines LNG Phase 1, according to a Department of Energy progress report cited by the American Gas Association.
- Nov. 1-5: The Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures across the central and eastern U.S., with probabilities above 70% over much of the East.
- Dec. 1: End of the European Commission window for EU storage to reach 90%.
TTF closes are from Investing.com, which listed Oct. 26 as its latest close. The Oct. 27 Henry Hub figure is the level Reuters reported, not labeled a settlement.