Henry Hub dips below $3.00 as US gas stocks add 67 Bcf and EU storage lags
US stocks stand 1.3% above the five-year average, but EU storage at 74.6% sits 14.6 points under its own, which keeps Dutch TTF near €88 per MWh.
- US gas stocks rose 67 Bcf to 3,567 Bcf in the week ended Oct. 9, below the five-year average build.
- EU storage was 74.6% full on Oct. 18 against 82.8% a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
- The EIA publishes its next storage report on Oct. 22, covering the week ended Oct. 16.
November Henry Hub futures traded below $3.00 per million British thermal units on Oct. 20, according to Natural Gas Intelligence, while EU storage stood 14.6 points below its five-year level on Oct. 18, in the week of Oct. 14-20.
US storage grew 67 Bcf, but the surplus to the average narrowed to 1.3%
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Oct. 15 that Lower 48 working gas rose 67 Bcf to 3,567 Bcf in the week ended Oct. 9, according to IndexBox's summary of the report.
Stocks were 3,500 Bcf a week earlier and stand 45 Bcf, or 1.3%, above the five-year average of 3,522 Bcf.
The American Gas Association (AGA) said the injection ran 23 Bcf below the five-year average, so the surplus narrowed from 2.0%, in its natural gas market indicators.
South Central held 1,097 Bcf, which is 3.1% below its five-year average and 9.9% below a year earlier, according to the same summary.
Salt-cavern stocks in that region are 15.4% below the five-year average and 21.9% below a year earlier, according to the same IndexBox summary.
Henry Hub gave back its mid-week gain as mild weather outweighed exports
November futures settled at $3.24 per million British thermal units on Oct. 15, according to the AGA, up from a $3.169 settlement on Oct. 13 reported by TradingNews. That is a 2.2% rise, our calculation.
By Oct. 20 the gain was gone. Natural Gas Intelligence reported the contract at $2.975 at 11:45 a.m. ET, down 8.3 cents on the day, as waning weather demand outweighed exports.
The EIA's daily Henry Hub spot series shows $3.22 on Oct. 14, up from $3.14 on Oct. 13. Spot prices for later days were not yet published when we checked.
Output also eased. Lower 48 production averaged 110.6 Bcf per day in October through Oct. 13, below the record 113.3 Bcf per day of August and September, according to MarineLink.
LNG feedgas and a Gulf supply recovery shaped the balance
Flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants averaged 17.4 Bcf per day in October through Oct. 13, against 17.9 Bcf per day in September, according to MarineLink.
The AGA said feedgas is 15.7% above 2025 on a year-to-date basis through Oct. 14, which keeps export demand a steady support for futures.
Supply returned in the Gulf of Mexico. Offshore shut-ins fell from about 1.26 Bcf per day, or 58.8% of output, on Oct. 9 to 0.24 Bcf per day, or 11.1%, on Oct. 14, the AGA said, citing regulator data.
EU storage at 74.6% leaves Europe exposed as Qatar exports stay constrained
Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI+ platform showed EU storage 74.58% full on Oct. 19, holding 844.87 TWh.
Voltstack, citing the same data, put the Oct. 18 level at 74.6% against 82.8% a year earlier and a five-year average of 89.2%, in its storage tracker.
Dutch TTF front-month futures closed at €88.09 per MWh on Oct. 19, up from €84.35 on Oct. 12, according to Investing.com. That is a 4.4% gain, our calculation. Not independently verified.
Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke said Qatar is "exporting at only 20-30% of its capacity," Energy News reported on Oct. 16. The outlet described the figure as reported, not confirmed.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management estimated in the same report that TTF could reach €100 per MWh if conditions worsen. The Oct. 19 close was €88.09.
The week in numbers
| Benchmark | Latest | Prior | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub November futures, $ per MMBtu | 3.24 (Oct. 15 settle) | 3.169 (Oct. 13 settle) | AGA, TradingNews |
| Henry Hub spot, $ per MMBtu | 3.22 (Oct. 14) | 3.14 (Oct. 13) | EIA |
| US working gas, Bcf | 3,567 (week ended Oct. 9) | 3,500 (week ended Oct. 2) | IndexBox |
| Gulf of Mexico shut-ins, Bcf per day | 0.24 (Oct. 14) | 1.26 (Oct. 9) | AGA |
| EU storage fill, % | 74.6 (Oct. 18) | 82.8 (Oct. 18, 2025) | Voltstack |
| TTF front month, € per MWh | 88.09 (Oct. 19 close) | 84.35 (Oct. 12 close) | Investing.com |
As of Oct. 20. TTF is compared on the Oct. 19 and Oct. 12 closes because the Oct. 20 close was not final. Henry Hub futures change is our calculation: 3.24 / 3.169 - 1.
The Oct. 22 storage report tests the US surplus, with Europe's refill in focus
- Oct. 22: the EIA releases storage data for the week ended Oct. 16 at 10:30 a.m. ET, according to natgaschart's schedule. The surplus to the five-year average was 1.3% on Oct. 9.
- Oct. 21-27: TradingNews reported on Oct. 14 that NOAA gave above-70% odds of warmth in the north-central US, which would weigh on heating demand.
- Nov. 1: Voltstack lists a target of roughly 80% to 90% for EU storage. The level was 74.6% on Oct. 18.
We could not verify the Oct. 20 Henry Hub settlement or the final TTF close, so each benchmark is compared on dated closes that we could check.
How we reported this: Storage figures come from AGA and IndexBox summaries of the EIA report; the EIA page did not open. The 2.2% and 4.4% changes are our calculation: 3.24 / 3.169 - 1 and 88.09 / 84.35 - 1.
Source: www.eia.gov