Corn falls 4.3%, soybeans 2.8% and wheat 3.9% as the US harvest weighs
Chicago December wheat closed at $6.43¼ on Oct. 20, while the FAO cereal price index rose 5.1% in September, a split between monthly prices and weekly futures.
- Chicago December wheat closed at $6.43¼ on Oct. 20, down 3.9% from Oct. 13 by our calculation.
- US corn harvest reached 44% by Oct. 18 against a five-year average of 52%, according to USDA data.
- The next WASDE report is due on Nov. 10, and the FAO cereal index update on Nov. 6.
CBOT December corn, November soybeans and December wheat all closed lower on Oct. 20, extending a slide through the week of Oct. 14-20 as harvest pressure outweighed renewed Chinese demand, according to Reuters.
Corn, soybeans and wheat each lost between 2.8% and 4.3% in the week
December corn closed at $4.62 per bushel on Oct. 20, down 5 cents on the day, according to Brownfield Ag News. The Oct. 13 close was $4.82¾, so corn fell 4.3%, our calculation.
November soybeans closed at $12.48¼, down 2.8%, and December Chicago wheat at $6.43¼, down 3.9%, on the same basis. The Oct. 13 closes are derived from the Oct. 14 closes and daily changes.
The decline came in steps. December corn closed at $4.80¾ on Oct. 14, $4.78 on Oct. 15, $4.74¼ on Oct. 16 and $4.67 on Oct. 19, according to Brownfield's Oct. 19 report.
November soybeans followed the same path from $12.77¼ on Oct. 14 to $12.53½ on Oct. 19. Chicago December wheat fell from $6.73¼ to $6.55¼ over those five sessions, then lost another 12 cents on Oct. 20.
No session in the window closed higher for corn or soybeans after Oct. 14, which makes the weekly drop a steady sell-off rather than a single-day move.
Reuters reported on Oct. 20 that soybeans traded at an eight-week low early in Asian hours, with corn and wheat at their lowest in more than two months, according to Business Recorder.
Harvest pressure outweighed Chinese buying
Investors trimmed bullish bets as Midwest harvesting advanced, Reuters said. Josh Lawrence of IKON Commodities said on Oct. 20 that a "cautious risk-off tone has persisted" as US harvests add to global supply.
USDA data showed corn harvested at 44% on Oct. 18, up from 33% a week earlier and below the five-year average of 52%, according to IndexBox's crop progress summary.
Soybeans stood at 64%, up from 46% a week earlier and close to the five-year average of 65%. Reuters noted that harvest progress for both crops was below expectations.
Chinese demand supported sentiment without lifting prices. USDA confirmed private sales of 114,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China on Oct. 19, and 1.472 million tons over four days, Reuters reported.
Wheat is pressed by ample supply while winter planting trails expectations
Ample global supplies weighed on wheat, Reuters reported. Russian and Ukrainian shipments continue despite restrictions, and Australia's harvest and Argentina's coming supplies add to the choice open to buyers.
Analysts raised their October export forecasts as Russian shipments, disrupted by the war with Ukraine, were redirected to Baltic terminals. Russian wheat export prices eased slightly in the previous week, according to the same report.
Chicago December wheat closed lower in four of the five sessions from Oct. 14 to Oct. 20, gaining only on Oct. 14, when it rose 4 cents, according to Brownfield.
Winter wheat planting was 63% complete against 65% expected by analysts, Reuters said on Oct. 20. The gap is two percentage points, our calculation.
FAO cereal prices rose 5.1% in September, before the October slide
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) put its Food Price Index at 136.0 points for September. Its cereal price index reached 122.8, up 6.0 points, or 5.1%, from August.
Fastmarkets, summarizing the FAO release of Oct. 2, said wheat prices rose 6.3% on the month and maize 5.6%, with Black Sea logistics and US yield concerns cited as drivers, in its report on the index.
Those are monthly readings for September. Futures in the week of Oct. 14-20 moved the other way.
The week in numbers
| Metric | Latest | Prior | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT corn, December, $ per bushel | 4.62 (Oct. 20) | 4.82¾ (Oct. 13) | -4.3% | Brownfield |
| CBOT soybeans, November, $ per bushel | 12.48¼ (Oct. 20) | 12.83¾ (Oct. 13) | -2.8% | Brownfield |
| CBOT wheat, December, $ per bushel | 6.43¼ (Oct. 20) | 6.69¼ (Oct. 13) | -3.9% | Brownfield |
| Corn harvested, % of area | 44 (Oct. 18) | 33 (Oct. 11) | +11 points | IndexBox |
| Soybeans harvested, % of area | 64 (Oct. 18) | 46 (Oct. 11) | +18 points | IndexBox |
| FAO cereal price index, points | 122.8 (September) | 116.8 (August) | +5.1% | FAO |
As of Oct. 20. Oct. 13 closes are derived from the Oct. 14 closes and daily changes; week change is our calculation: Oct. 20 close / Oct. 13 close - 1.
Four USDA and FAO releases between Oct. 22 and Nov. 10 will test the supply picture
- Oct. 22: USDA export sales are released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursdays, according to CME Group.
- Oct. 26: the weekly Crop Progress report is due at 3:00 p.m. CT, with corn harvest at 44% on Oct. 18.
- Nov. 6: FAO publishes its next Food Price Index, covering October, after 136.0 in September.
- Nov. 10: the next WASDE report is due at 12:00 p.m. ET, according to USDA.
How we reported this: Closes come from Brownfield Ag News; the Oct. 13 closes are our derivation from Oct. 14 closes and changes. Harvest data come from an IndexBox summary of USDA reports, and Reuters items via Business Recorder.
Source: fao.org